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dissabte, 15 d’octubre del 2016

Are Libyans abandoning democracy in search of stability?

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/10/libya-abandoning-democracy-search-stability.html#ixzz4NBbzixya

10.10

Mohamed ELJARH


It has been nearly five years since Libyan leader Col. Moammar Gadhafi was captured and killed by Libyan rebels near his hometown of Sirte on Oct. 20, 2011. Sadly, Libya remains a deeply divided country, both politically and institutionally, and does not have a functional representative government in place. Tragically, Libya’s democratic transition process failed to create an environment conducive for democracy and the rule of law. Instead, Libya became a country where militias ruled, extremist groups flourished and living conditions deteriorated significantly. The country also suffers from a major political crisis, with various competing governments each claiming legitimacy and control over key institutions such as the Central Bank, the National Oil Corporation and the Libyan Investment Authority.


Today, Libyans are forced to choose between two extremes: either chaos with militias and Islamist extremists as the dominant forces, or military rule. No other convincing options are on offer. The choice is quite clear in Libya’s eastern region of Cyrenaica (Barqa in Arabic), where the military is now the dominant armed and political force on the ground, expanding its control over democratically elected and civilian institutions without any public opposition and with clear public support for their actions. On June 19, the president of the Libyan parliament in Tobruk, in his claimed capacity as supreme commander of the armed forces, declared a state of emergency and appointed the Libyan National Army Chief of Staff Abdulrazaq Nadori as military governor for the eastern region. Nadori now has the power to appoint civilian and military committees and can replace local municipal councils with military governors. He also can prohibit demonstrations that do not have prior written consent from his office.
In Libya’s eastern region, Nadori started a campaign to replace largely dysfunctional but democratically elected municipal councils with military-appointed governors. The step represents yet another setback for democracy in post-Gadhafi Libya. So far, military governors have replaced eight municipal councils, including those in the cities of Benghazi, Shahaat, Ejdabyia in the northeast and Kufrah in the southeast. 
Otman Gajiji, the chairman of the Central Committee of Municipal Elections of Libya, expressed great concern over what he called the “military takeover” of democratically elected authorities. “There is no legal framework or justification for these appointments,” he told Al-Monitor.
Indeed, there is no existing legislation or emergency law in place to legally justify Nadori’s actions. It is also clear that there is no accountability mechanism for oversight from the parliament in Tobruk.
However, such concerns do not seem to be shared by the head of Libya’s parliament, who authorized Nadori’s actions. Also, the mayor of Tobruk in eastern Libya requested that the military appoint a governor for the city, citing a lack of resources and city officials' inability to provide services and fight crime. Similarly, local community leaders in the municipality of Soloug south of Benghazi demanded that the military appoint a governor for the municipality. Local communities in the southern and western regions of Libya are discussing the idea of military governors for their own municipalities, showing the potential for the militarization trend to spread nationwide.
To understand this shift in Libya’s political and governance landscape, one must look into the dynamics that gave rise to this trend and also local perspectives about it. Activists in the city of Benghazi, the first to have its municipal council replaced with a military governor, told Al-Monitor that many civil society and democracy activists were strong supporters of the army’s war on extremist Islamist militias in Benghazi. The activists explained their support by pointing out that since 2012, Benghazi has witnessed a terror campaign at the hands of extremists in which more than 500 civil society activists, politicians, journalists and military and security personnel have been killed. Most of these cases were perpetrated by “unknown assailants,” with successive governments failing to bring those responsible to justice. Furthermore, the security situation and living conditions have deteriorated significantly. The Libyan National Army and its leader, Gen. Khalifa Hifter, capitalized on these failures.
Residents of Benghazi and other major cities in eastern Libya celebrate the Libyan National Army’s advances and gains in Benghazi. Younes Najm, an activist from Benghazi, said the Libyan National Army "has recognition in the eyes of the people because it was the only institution that dealt with people’s concerns over the rise of extremist groups, militias and the deteriorating security situation.” Indeed, under the Libyan National Army, security has improved and criminal activities are being addressed, garbage collection seems to be working and there is better control over the prices of goods and services. All of these are quick wins that were badly needed and that previous governments failed to deliver. Undoubtedly, all this gives the military more public legitimacy than democratically elected but dysfunctional institutions.
“This is not what we had hoped for Libya, but Libya’s chance to establish a democracy has been sabotaged by narrow-minded interests and hijacked by Islamist groups with a transitional agenda,” said Monem Alyaser, who served in the General National Congress, the 2012-2014 transitional legislature. “Somehow, we will have to start over by establishing stability and building democratic institutions capable of upholding the rule of law and protecting human rights,” he added.
Despite the threats, challenges and the long road ahead, civil society activists and democracy advocates in Libya should be ready to push against the militarization exercise unfolding in the country in a way that does not help extremists or their enablers but rather defends the principles of rule of law, human rights and democracy.

The Hifter effect on the battle for Libya's Sirte

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/10/libya-battle-sirte-isis-general-hifter.html#ixzz4NBZFRcjX

14.10

JASON PACK


For months now, the ouster of Islamic State (IS) forces from Libya’s coastal city of Sirte has been touted as imminent, yet like the light at the end of the tunnel that is within sight but out of grasp, complete victory against IS continues to evade the Misratan-led, Bunyan al-Marsus (BM) forces, and their US allies.


There is still little doubt that a victory of some sort will be eventually won. In fact, before President Barack Obama leaves office, the United States may be able to claim that its aerial and training support have proved instrumental in ousting IS from Sirte. However, without a unified political solution in place through which Sirte’s battered infrastructure, public services and civilian way of life can be restored post-IS, any such victory may turn out to be very superficial. IS emerged in Sirte out of a Misratan occupation following the defeat of an al-Qaeda-linked jihadi group, Ansar al-Sharia, in 2013. The post-conflict stabilization was botched and both civilians in Sirte and Ansar al-Sharia fighters chafed under the Misratan yoke, the latter defecting wholesale to IS in 2015.
Is Sirte closer to being liberated?
IS forces are currently entrenched within the third residential area in northeast Sirte, and despite their limited numbers, the remaining IS fighters continue to inflict casualties on their Misratan opponents through sniper fire and explosive devices. On Oct. 7, BM forces, who are nominally aligned with the UN-brokered Government of National Accord (GNA), launched a fresh assault, which culminated in splitting the enclave. A BM media official, Ali al-Mabrouk, said, "The forces of Bunyan al-Marsus made some advances and completely [cut off] the 600-block area in Sirte." Nevertheless, at least 8 BM fighters were killed in this latest advance, while IS fighters still appear able to conduct attacks outside of their stronghold; on Oct. 2, a Dutch photojournalist was killed by sniper fire in an area of Sirte already supposedly "liberated" from IS forces. Furthermore, reports of fighting between BM forces and jihadis south of Sirte in recent weeks seems to confirm fears that IS fighters have been able to seep out of Sirte, and may therefore be able to regroup or assimilate into other jihadi groups elsewhere.
Have US airstrikes really helped?
The United States has conducted 210 sorties since Aug. 1, when it launched Operation Odyssey Lightning — its campaign of airstrikes in support of BM forces fighting IS in Sirte — and has twice exceeded its planned time frame with operations now entering their third month. The low levels of ordinance dropped and the need for such extensions speak volumes about the ineffective military phasing of this operation. Airstrikes should have been used to soften up IS positions long before BM fighters had begun the urban warfare that has turned IS into a guerrilla enemy. This approach was not adopted because the GNA only requested US assistance after its own forces got bogged down. It should come as no surprise then that the Misratan Military Council — which is coordinating military efforts on the ground in Sirte — has indicated its discontent with the US air support, calling it ineffective.
Due to this incorrect phasing, airstrikes may not have lowered allied casualties or accelerated the battle’s time frame. Since the assault on IS in Sirte began in May, Misrata has suffered heavy losses for a city of only 500,000 inhabitants — at least 560 BM fighters have been killed and 2,750 injured. Rifts and tensions within Misrata have magnified and Misrata’s role as Libya’s most powerful city-state has diminished.
As Misrata gains a Pyrrhic victory, Hifter rises
While the Sirte campaign has dragged on in the east, Khalifa Hifter, the commander of the so-called Libyan National Army (LNA), has steadily been amassing power and territory through his militarization of the governance of much of eastern Libya, which now extends to within 50 kilometers (31 miles) of Sirte. On Sept. 11, he seized the oil crescent ports from the federalists, allowing the resumption of much-needed crude exports, and firmly tipping the country’s balance of power in his direction.
Hifter’s actual victory in the oil crescent has pre-empted and overshadowed Misrata’s anticipated victory in Sirte, shifting power away from the GNA and western Libya, toward Hifter in the east. Oil production has reached 554,000 barrels per day and its continued flow is essential to stymie OPEC attempts to cut production and raise prices. These new realities on the ground mean that Hifter now has greater leverage within the international community as well as with many towns, tribes and militias on the ground. It is too early to say what impact this will have in the ongoing fight against jihadism in Libya.
De-facto separation?
On the one hand, given that there is no longer a third force separating the LNA and Misratan forces — a role the federalists and IS had previously occupied — and that both Misrata and the LNA are fighting IS and other jihadi groups, albeit in different locations, this could theoretically strengthen the logic of partition and tacit compromise between eastern and western Libya in the event of the collapse of the UN-mediated peace process. Indeed, there are likely to be many battle-weary Misratan fighters who are willing to tacitly accept Hifter’s gains so long as the LNA does not advance further west or tries to keep oil revenues for themselves. That said, although Hifter's influence is strong in eastern Libya, he is struggling to exert his control over his allies elsewhere, with LNA units in both southern and western Libya rebelling against his rule in recent days. Although a rebellion by ex-Moammar Gadhafi regime commanders in Sebha was quashed last week, this shows that Hifter does not yet have the power or influence to take the rest of Libya by force.
On the other hand, anti-Hifter sentiment remains sky high and is already fueling a backlash that could stimulate further jihadi recruitment. Islamist hard-liners from across Libya appear to be rallying their forces to Tripoli, fearful that current negotiations with Hifter will lead to him being given a security role within the UN-mediated political process. Kidnappings and assassinations between pro-GNA and Islamist militias in Tripoli have been on the rise in recent weeks, and if a new "grand bargain" is struck that reflects Hifter’s power on the ground, it is highly likely that these anti-Hifter hard-line Islamists will respond with violence, possibly spawning a newly rebranded jihadi network.



GNC and HoR to announce unity government

14.10

The former head of the National Salvation Government, in Tripoli, Khalifa Al-Ghuwel, and some members of the General National Congress (GNC), including the deputy head, Awad Abdul-Qader, as well as security officers convened, Friday evening, in Tripoli.
The meeting was held in the headquarter of the GNC in hospitality palaces in Tripoli, to agree on forming a national unity government under the leadership of Mohamed Boker.
According to close source in Tripoli, the sides of the agreement would include the head of the House of Representatives (HoR), Ageela Saleh, Khalifa Al-Ghuwel, the head of the GNC, the head of the Interim Government, Abdulla Al-Thinni, and Nuri Abusahmain. The agreement would be provided to the HoR to endorse it.
The source said that the two deputies of Boker would be Al-Ghuwel and Al-Thinni. The proposed government will start working in all of the areas in Libya. The meeting is expected to announce a statement, Sunday night.
The Presidential Council (PC) of the Government of National Accord (GNA) hasn’t commented on the matter.