09.08
A shared military front has not materialized and is unlikely to materialize, because ISIS’s opponents have never made a coherent political coalition against it. At the time of writing (early August 2016), divisions between Haftar’s LNA, the GNA’s Banyan Marsus, and Ibrahim Jadhran’s Petroleum Facilities Gaurds have never been greater.
Conflict between the LNA and Jadhran’s PFG is imminent in the coming days and weeks, especially at Zeuitina. However, since 3 August, the LNA’s (153) Desert forces led by Col. Muftah Shagluf has been mobilising forces to positions in Al Shurb, 10 km east of Zeuitina port. The move has provoked a strong reaction from the PFG, whose spokesperson Ali Al-Hassi threatened that any attack by the LNA ‘gangs’ will be met with decisive forces, and held the LNA accountable for any damages to the port or oil facilities in Zeuitina. If war does break out between the PFG and the LNA at/near Zeuitina, impacts on the larger political process will be extremely negative, and attempts to renormalize oil exports via Jadhran are likely to collapse.
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